After going back through my stats for the last 500Mtt's I've played on PS I have realized that my experiment to ITM less but go deaper when I do has not been a great success. My ITM is down but so is my ROI. I have been B/E to small profit for a very long time and now if you consider my rebuys (best guess) I'm now a light looser. WTF? Faaack !
I have yet to check FullTilt but I'm sure I'll find the same with the exception of one deep finish that will make all my numbers look better. A 4th in the $70k. But then that was the point. Thank god for sites like FullContact where my good stats will be frozen in time forever.
So one of the games I have shown a steady profit in is the Poker Stars $3Rebuy. The other 2 being the $10 rebuy and surprisingly the Sunday Million. On Monday I played a huge field of almost 5,000. Insane for a rebuy. Basic TAG type game until I get to 300 (720 Bubble) left. I'm looking real good with about 20 BB's when I made a raydiculous decision to Jam PF with a pair of deuces. I hate 2's. Heavy limping, big blinds and a PF overbet by a very clever agrro player to my left cried steal to me. I figured in a very rapid manner that I was a 55% favorite against 75% of his range and only a 20% dog to the rest. I was getting $120k back on $45k in the pot. So in they went. Everyone else had folded.
I'm not trying to justify it at all, it was stupid, I was obviously brain dead at the time. These games are lonnnnnng. I really should have waited for better opportunities. But then if it worked...........
.75*.55*110k + .25*.20*110k = 50.5k (very rough) for $5.5k EV against my tourny life is not a good decision.
Tonight I think I'll try my second shot at a live MTT. 37 players last week. I expect an even smaller game tonight.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Its only impatience when it doesn't work
Labels:
$3RB,
deep,
impatience,
MTT's,
NL,
Poker Stars,
shoving
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