After going back through my stats for the last 500Mtt's I've played on PS I have realized that my experiment to ITM less but go deaper when I do has not been a great success. My ITM is down but so is my ROI. I have been B/E to small profit for a very long time and now if you consider my rebuys (best guess) I'm now a light looser. WTF? Faaack !
I have yet to check FullTilt but I'm sure I'll find the same with the exception of one deep finish that will make all my numbers look better. A 4th in the $70k. But then that was the point. Thank god for sites like FullContact where my good stats will be frozen in time forever.
So one of the games I have shown a steady profit in is the Poker Stars $3Rebuy. The other 2 being the $10 rebuy and surprisingly the Sunday Million. On Monday I played a huge field of almost 5,000. Insane for a rebuy. Basic TAG type game until I get to 300 (720 Bubble) left. I'm looking real good with about 20 BB's when I made a raydiculous decision to Jam PF with a pair of deuces. I hate 2's. Heavy limping, big blinds and a PF overbet by a very clever agrro player to my left cried steal to me. I figured in a very rapid manner that I was a 55% favorite against 75% of his range and only a 20% dog to the rest. I was getting $120k back on $45k in the pot. So in they went. Everyone else had folded.
I'm not trying to justify it at all, it was stupid, I was obviously brain dead at the time. These games are lonnnnnng. I really should have waited for better opportunities. But then if it worked...........
.75*.55*110k + .25*.20*110k = 50.5k (very rough) for $5.5k EV against my tourny life is not a good decision.
Tonight I think I'll try my second shot at a live MTT. 37 players last week. I expect an even smaller game tonight.
Showing posts with label impatience. Show all posts
Showing posts with label impatience. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Its only impatience when it doesn't work
Labels:
$3RB,
deep,
impatience,
MTT's,
NL,
Poker Stars,
shoving
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